War Day 541: Rocket Shrapnel at School, Preparation for Iran War

War Summary of Day 541:

March 30, 2025

59 held captive in Gaza.
35 hostages confirmed murdered held in Gaza. 
147 living hostages rescued.
49 hostage bodies rescued.
1,828 Israelis killed.
413 fallen soldiers and police in the battle in Gaza.
87 fallen soldiers in Northern Israel.
18 fallen soldiers and police in Judea & Samaria.
30,696 estimated projectiles fired at Israel.
20,000 Israelis estimated displaced from their homes. 
1 Jewish nation united in prayer, charity, and good deeds.

Top Headlines:

-Hamas still not giving up on armed control of Gaza
-Government votes to increase military pressure on Hamas
-Netanyahu outlines plan for end of war
-Ballistic missile from Yemen takes multiple interceptions to reduce threat
-Shrapnel lands in school yard
-Iran rejects Trump’s letter
-Trump threatens “bombing the likes of which they have never seen before”
-Police arrest teen who pledged allegiance to ISIS

Hostages:

There are very mixed messages coming from the negotiations. There are reports that Hamas initially said they’d only return one living hostage, and four bodies of hostages, and that they now agreed to offer five living hostages in exchange for the first 50 day ceasefire. Other reports say that Hamas is still only agreeing to return one living hostage. Israel is insisting on ten living hostages.

The other details to be negotiated are the length of the ceasefire, the amount of humanitarian aid (including fuel), and the amount and identities of terrorists freed from Israeli prison.

There is also the issue of the second phase. The deal is supposed to bring about negotiations for a second phase, in which the remaining hostages will be freed. Hamas is insisting that this phase be guaranteed. In addition, they continue to insist that the second phase leaves Hamas in Gaza, in power, and armed. 

Hamas official (who is in Qatar), Dr. Khalil Al Hayya, insists on these demands, and also emphasized “the right to armed resistance” and that Hamas’s goal is to have Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine, with the right of return for all “Palestinian refugees” (this includes all descendants of Arabs who lived in Israel before 1948, and left at the encouragement of the Arab League who told them they’d be able to return after the league finished a genocide of the Jews in the land).

Seeing as Hamas is beginning to feel the pressure, but not enough to buckle, Israel’s government cabinet voted to move to the next step of battle in Gaza, to increase the military pressure on Hamas.

Interesting: Most (if not all) polls run by news networks in Israel do not represent the facts before asking people if they are in support of a deal or not. Feeling this made the polls inaccurate, one social media giant ran a poll with the facts laid out. However, the account (Abu Ali Express) has a following that largely leans right. So @LittleMoiz on X (aka Twitter), who produces infographs and has a very diverse and balanced Israeli audience, tried out the same poll.

The question:

Do you support a deal to release all the hostages that would include all of the following conditions in return:
1. The end of the war, with Hamas still in power without disarmament.
2. Complete withdrawal from Gaza.
3. Complete rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip.
4. The release of thousands of Palestinian [terrorist] prisoners, including the most serious ones?

The results:
Based on 13,552 votes
30% In support of the deal
60% Against the deal
10% Unsure

Gaza:

The IDF continued with airstrikes in Gaza, while slightly increasing the security buffer zone in areas outside Khan Younis. There are a significant number of troops stationed outside Gaza, ready and waiting to be sent in.

The aim is still primarily focused on pressuring Hamas to give up more hostages. The tactic is to target both: Hamas’s military and governing capabilities. This makes it increasingly difficult for Hamas to control the population, and insist on continuing to rule the Strip.

In an address before today’s government meeting, Prime Minister Netanyahu insisted that the government has a plan for the final stage of the war in Gaza. “Hamas will lay down its weapons. Its leaders will be allowed to leave.

We will see to the general security in the Gaza Strip, and will allow the realization of the Trump plan for voluntary migration.”

Note that he did not say that Hamas will be entirely dismantled. He did say that they will disarm, and have the option to leave. Another important note, is the plan for Israel to take over security control of Gaza. The Trump plan for voluntary migration seems to play a significant role. Offices in both the Ministry of Defense and IDF have already been established and are beginning to roll out the plan for this to take place.

Anti-Hamas protests are continuing to grow in Gaza, and Hamas seems to be trying to quiet them down discreetly. There are reports (source: Ynet) that Hamas kidnapped and murdered several leading protesters over the weekend. Hamas is refraining from shooting into the crowd, likely to avoid bad PR.

Some are suspicious that Hamas is behind the protests, seeing it as a way to garner sympathy for the people of Gaza. Most evidence points to the Palestinian Authority, and specifically the Fatah Party (an enemy of Hamas) being behind it.

While the protesters are anti-Hamas, they are not necessarily anti-war or pro-peace.

Lebanon:

The IDF estimates that the infrastructure of Hamas’s elite Radwan Force has been destroyed by 90% in areas along the border (source: Israel Hayom). The IDF sees this as a significantly decreased likelihood of the Radian Forces attempting an October 7th-style infiltration attack, but not at all an impossibility. Therefore, IDF troops are continuously training for such a scenario, and the border security remains bolstered to prevent it. 

Since Hezbollah’s leadership has been largely destroyed, they may now switch to guerrilla warfare, not dissimilar to their early days. Remember: Hezbollah was extremely powerful at the start of the war, seen as one of the strongest armies in the Middle East. They got most of their weaponry from Iran, in the years following the Second Lebanon War (2006). With their capabilities reduced, they might now be as strong as they were before the Second Lebanon War.

Following two cases of rocket fire on Northern Israel in the last two weeks, PM Netanyahu said that it won’t be tolerated, and stated: “The Lebanese state is responsible for what emanates from its territory and it needs to see to it that nothing does, that attacks against the State of Israel do not emanate from its territory. We respect the Lebanese state and its military; therefore, we demand from them the things that you demand from someone you respect.”

The fire is estimated to have been from a rogue terror group in Lebanon. Israel responded with heavy attacks on Hezbollah.

Syria:

IDF troops continue to carry out raids in Southern Syria, to ensure that no weapons near Israel’s borders. While the full security buffer zone is under IDF control, it has not yet al been combed through. The IDF carried out out further raids this week in the Syrian Mount Hermon, during which they located military equipment and an explosive device weighing dozens of kilograms.

There is growing concerns of Turkey moving its military into Syria, and approaching Israel’s border. While Turkey was once a friend of Israel, President Erdogan has turned against Israel over the last decade. Today, in a speech, he said “May my Lord (Allah) bring destruction and ruin upon Zionist Israel.”

Erdogan is also facing large protests against him at home. 

Yemen:

Around 10:40 a.m., the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen fired a ballistic missile at Central Israel. Sirens were activated in the areas around Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Millions of Israelis, including hundreds of thousands of children in school, had to run to shelter.

The missile was intercepted before entering Israeli airspace. Multiple explosions were heard in Central Israel, despite only one missile being launched. When this is heard, it is usually because the missile was so large, that after being intercepted by the Arrow (or THAAD) defense system, there were still shrapnel pieces continuing on trajectory that were large enough to be a threat. Those large pieces need to be further intercepted by the Iron Dome, over Israeli airspace. This has happened several times already.

Shrapnel pieces were found in at least two school yards.

The U.S. continued to target the Houthis today, with heavy airstrikes in Sana’a. The U.S. is working in Yemen together with Israeli intelligence, but without Israeli military action.

Iran:

Iran responded to Trump’s warning letter, issuing a firm rejection to negotiations (source: AP). However, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian hinted that Iran is still open to indirect talks, on their own terms. 

Today, Trump told the press: “If they (Iran) don’t make a deal, there will be bombing — and it will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.”

Both the U.S. and Israel are posturing and deep into preparations to attack Iran. However, several analysts (such as  Ron Ben-Yishai on Ynet) are saying that an attack might not take place for at least another few months. Israel and the U.S. will first continue to train and prepare, while still attempting to get Iran to agree to dismantle their nuclear projects.

Other:

-Netanyahu is planning a visit to Hungary this week, to visit Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who declared that he will not follow the ICC arrest warrant. 

-Confirmed: Sources now confirm that the UAE imposed a death sentence on the three Uzbek citizens who murdered Chabad emissary Zvi Kogan.

-The police and Shin Bet say they arrested a 17-year-old minor who pledged allegiance to ISIS. The teen is an Israeli citizen from the Arab town of Jisr a-Zarqa. He is arrested on suspicion of planning a terror attack. Police found materials to create a bomb in his possession. 

PM Netanyahu’s speech ahead of the government meeting today

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